How houses performed as long-term investment and where we are now with the real estate market in 2020 ...

#decisionMaking #riskManagement #quantitativeIntuition Following the post Reversion to the mean? Still tough to profit from it, it could be useful to show an actual application. It is key to understand that the difficulty of leveraging the probable reversion toward the mean of events applies to many different domains, not only the specific one discussed here. It is the underlying distribution of events that determines the specific behavior. We will discuss below, a trading al

Events will probably revert to the mean, but making decisions on that idea would probably ruin us. Here are 3 practical tips ...

Part 1 of the series Make Better Decisions Through Probability & Statistics. As per the intro-post of the series, this post will focus on: "Bayesian probability made me realize that in any scenario we are more likely to be wrong in our initial hypotheses than right. We can make better decisions only by trying to disproof ourselves rather than validate our initial thinking." #decisionmaking #probabilityandstatistics #foodforthought The most common approach to probability an

#decisionmaking #probabilityandstatistics # foodforthought I am an engineer, I transitioned from mechanical engineering to financial engineering; while the former is the one I love the most, the one I am always tinkering with and the one I am going to go back eventually, the latter is the one I consider to be a turning point in my way of thinking. The reason why I think my financial studies were a decisive point is not that they gave me the tools to get most of my decisions r

#decisionMaking #intuition #management #strategies Sometimes, the simpler the tool, the harder it is to master it. In management, investment and business in general, one of the tool we often rely on – even if not consciously or explicitly – is the central limit theorem. In short, it guarantees that sums and averages of variables (random) converge to the Gaussian distribution, no matter the specific distribution of the variables – as long as they all have the same distribution